نشریه آینده پژوهی دفاعی
پیاپی 18 (پاییز 1399)

This research studies the Future of Iran-Turkey Relations to help the policymakers by depicting the future atmosphere of relations between the two countries, so they can think of alternative options that are closest to the national interests of the country. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to identify probable scenarios in Iran-Turkey relations on the horizon of 2030.The research is exploratory in nature, practical in purpose, mixed in data gathering, and correlational in data analysis. A scenario planning method based on cross-impact balance analysis was used in this research. First, the 62 variables affecting the Iran-Turkey relations were identified. By distributing a questionnaire among 35 experts, the effect, importance and uncertainty of each variable were determined. Finally, the validity of 57 variables were confirmed as factors and drivers affecting the future of Iran-Turkey relations. To analyze the results of the questionnaire and select the key factors, the importance-performance analysis method was used and the threshold value of significance and uncertainty was determined. In total, 19 factors had importance and uncertainty above the threshold value. Then, using Friedman test, 19 factors were ranked and by determining the cut-off point of ten, so eight final key factors were selected to form the matrix of cross-impact balance. Then, by forming a panel of experts and weighing the interactions and software analysis with Scenario Wizard,4 scenarios with zero incompatibility and 17 scenarios with incompatibility value of one, were obtained and by combining close scenarios, seven final scenarios were written and analyzed.

Data mining is a powerful technology that has the ability to discover knowledge hidden in a huge range of data. The purpose of this study is to analyze the portfolio of technical parts by data mining in order to improve the forecast and supply the needs of the defense logistics system. Therefore in the stage of discovering patterns and association in terms of purpose is applied, nature and method is exploratory and library information collection, and in the stage of evaluating the usefulness of patterns in terms of purpose, developmental, the nature and method is descriptive- survey and field information collection. The statistical population for data mining is the database of information technical parts requested by the units of a defense organization for related systems and repair centers over a period of 10 years. The statistical population to measure the relationship between data mining results and forecasting and supply the requirements is expert’s logistics systems. In order to analyze the data for data mining, the cross- industry standard process and SQL Server and Rapid Miner software has been used, and to analyze the data collected through a questionnaire, SPSS software has been used. The results of this study showed that method of discovering association rules can be used to analyze the request portfolio of technical parts and achieve the request pattern, and the patterns and the discovered patterns are used to improve the performance of the logistics system in the field of forecasting and supply the requirements of technical parts

Considering the need to take appropriate measures for the military organizations of the country in the field of human resource agility, the present study seeks to investigate the key drivers affecting the development of human resource agility in military organizations. The research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of nature and method. In this study, library resources and interviews with experts were used to formulate theoretical foundations and select drivers, and the MICMAC questionnaire was used to collect data. The study population consisted of military experts and faculty members of AJA universities. Using snowball sampling method, 30 people were selected as sample members. Research data were analyzed using MICMAC software. In the first phase of the study, 30 propellants were identified. By analyzing the data in the next phase, 19 propellants out of 30 propellants were identified as key propellants affecting the development of human resource agility in military organizations. The results showed that most experts on drivers such as employee satisfaction, service delivery speed, knowledge and teamwork and negotiation skills, self-control, participation, sense of competence, preventive behaviors, sense of effectiveness, consultation, knowledge sharing, acceptance of responsibility, self-directed teams Emphasized the ability to come up with new ideas, empathy, take advantage of change, career rotation, self-awareness of change and available information.

Defense and security organizations operate in a very complex and unstable environment. Long-term defense planning encourages thinking about possible situations and helps defense organizations prepare for the future to improve their strategy by providing insights into possible future dangers. The main purpose of this study is to study the geomorphological features of Minab and Sirik areas in the east of the Strait of Hormuz and their impact on the development of territorial defense strategies. The type of applied research and its nature is analytical-descriptive. Data were collected in the form of libraries - documentary and survey and its data were qualitative and quantitative. The statistical population includes 24 elites and experts in defense and security issues. The coefficient of criteria was determined based on the Likert spectrum. Using SWOT analytical tool, 34 indicators (strengths 8, weaknesses 9, opportunities 8 and threats 9) were evaluated and evaluated by relevant experts. The Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix (QSPM) was used to select the optimal strategy from the strategies obtained from SWOT analysis. The results of the SWOT model suggest the (WO) strategy as the optimal strategy in the Minab and Sirik regions. At the same time, in prioritizing the review strategy using the model (QSPM), the priority and superiority of the strategy is to use and deploy advanced defense, radar and eavesdropping systems, parallel to the shoreline and the points that create maximum frequency range over other review strategies.

Iran's confrontation with various economic sanctions has had many consequences and issues that make the need for scientific research in this field more and more clear. Paying attention to the vulnerabilities of economic sanctions, taking measures to deal with them and ways to get out of the pressure of sanctions, especially in recent years, have become increasingly important. Security and tourism are two interrelated categories. Whereas the tourism industry, as a parent industry, on the one hand, plays an important role in job creation and economic development, and on the other hand, its prosperity and development play a significant role in countering sanctions, in resilience to its negative effects, and in increasing security and passive defense, in the present study, it is tried to first identify the vulnerabilities of economic sanctions with a futuristic approach and then, considering the capabilities of the tourism industry in Iran, to provide solutions in this field. The statistical population of this study consists of experts in the tourism industry and related industries, including the hotel industry, tourism service companies, and travel agencies, which were sampled by snowball and judgment. Thematic analysis, environmental scanning and Delphi method have been used to collect data while using library studies. The results of this study, while identifying and introducing the effects and negative consequences of sanctions, have provided solutions to deal with them with a focus on the tourism industry.

Advanced industries, while having the capability to use new technologies, see their future as dependent on managing rapid changes in technology. This doubly important in the advanced aerospace industry due to its impact on various economic, technological and security dimensions. Explaining and extracting the pattern used to select a forward-looking technology strategy in advanced aerospace industries is the objective of this research. which is the result of inductive and qualitative research "grounded theory". research data has been gathered from 18 people of experts and specialists in this industry through semi constructive, purposeful, and face-to-face interviews, then by three step coding, has been analysed and achieved. Consequence shows that in general, the market pulls dominate the technology push approach. It was also observed that governance and customer demand, sanctions, customer technical capability, system status of technology, level of trust and confidence in the localization of technology, management approaches and attitudes, the ability and belief of individuals and professionals, and ... are the most important and effective criteria in extracted pattern Which distinguishes the choice of technology strategy from existing models. As a result of research, the need to pay attention to upstream strategies, presence and demands  of costumers in the process of technology development, care for the role of experts and managers, beyond organizational systems and procedures, smart selection of product type and the update of appropriate technology in line with environmental changes and threats, paying attention to the different levels of technology impact, etc. to achieve the improvement of aerospace technology, are among the results of this research.